Arval has found that fleet operators are reducing their predictions of electric van adoption in the future.
Van fleets surveyed in 2025 predicted that 14% of their fleet will be electric by 2028, compared to the 15% of fleets surveyed last year and the 18% of fleets surveyed in 2023.
Expectations of plug-in hybrid (PHEV) van adoption also declined, from 15% in last year’s survey to 14% in this year’s.
John Peters, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “This question is one of the most interesting in the Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer, looking at how van fleets expect the fuel mix of their fleets to change within the next three years.
“Unavoidably, the key finding here is a limited expectation that adoption of battery, PHEV and hydrogen vans will noticeably rise.
“In fact, there is a general feeling that the percentage of traditional diesel and petrol vehicles will increase instead.”
Arval said that fleets were encountering issues with electric van operations, mainly with charging, range and payload.
A similar trend of reducing expectations of electric van adoption was identified both across European and global fleets.
Peters said: “These are almost certainly the reasons why many of our respondents are unconvinced about the potential for adoption.
“Indeed, much of the work being carried out by the Arval UK consultancy team is aimed at helping customers find solutions to these issues.
“However, it remains our belief that these predictions are overly pessimistic and that use of both electric and PHEV vans will rise substantially by the end of the decade.
“This suggests the same kinds of issues with the transition to zero emissions vans are arising everywhere. Hopefully, we can all work together to discover effective solutions.”
