Analysts from institutions such as Barclays, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are projecting potential spikes to $100 to $130 (£74.59 to £96.96) per barrel of crude oil, if the Hormuz Strait faces prolonged disruptions, according to FairFuelUK.
Crude oil constitutes around 30% to 40% of the final pump price in the UK, with fuel duty (52.95p per litre) and VAT (20%) accounting for over half.
Even short-term oil tanker route closures or increased shipping insurance risks could initially push Brent crude toward $80 to $90 (£59,67 to £67.13).
As of 27th February 2026, Brent was trading around $72 to $73 (£53.70 to £54.45) per barrel.
A sustained rise in Brent to $100 (£74.59) could add 10-20p per litre to petrol and diesel within weeks, based on historical patterns.
According to FairFuelUK, Diesel will see sharper increases due to higher retailer margins and the traditional fuel supply chain oil profiteering seen in recent years, while a likely weakening pound against the dollar – as oil is dollar-denominated – would amplify costs.
Howard Cox, founder of FairFuelUK, said: “In light of the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, Rachel Reeves must declare in her Spring Statement that Fuel Duty will remain frozen for the duration of her Parliament and cancel any planned increases in the Autumn Budget.
“This move would not only be economically prudent – stimulating GDP growth and alleviating inflationary pressure – but it would also provide some much-needed political relief to this government, known for its frequent U-turns.
“The critical point for all UK politicians to consider is that had the North Sea oil and gas fields been permitted to ‘drill-baby-drill’, our pump prices would not, once again, be so vulnerable in the long term to any conflict in the Middle East.”
