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EV & Sustainability

How real-time data can protect EV residual values

Used EV supply is rising faster than demand, driving down values - but smarter data use could offer leasing firms a competitive edge.

Opinion
3 min read
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According to the BVRLA, the supply of used electric vehicles is expected to rise 178% by 2028, but demand is not keeping pace.

This mismatch is already putting downward pressure on values, which have fallen 50% in the past two years, and a further 28% decline is forecast by 2030.

Leasing companies are feeling the impact. In this difficult market, strong sales arguments are more important than ever. Vehicle data can provide a solid foundation.

Problems with traditional valuation

To accurately determine the value of a used car, more than just age and mileage need to be considered. These include the condition of the engine, transmission, wear parts and electronic components.

For electric vehicles, battery condition is also critical. But in practice, assessing these factors can be time-consuming and expensive. Instead, residual values are often based on assumptions – for example, that lower mileage means less wear.

The problem is: mileage alone doesn’t reveal how the car was driven – whether mostly on motorways or in stop-start urban traffic. Nor does it reflect driving behaviour.

A vehicle’s condition can vary greatly depending on whether it was driven cautiously or aggressively. With EVs, other factors come into play too, such as temperature exposure and charging habits. While battery readings can be collected, doing so typically still requires a visit to the workshop.

A ‘digital twin light’ with telematics data

Inspections and workshop visits wouldn’t be necessary if a digital snapshot of the vehicle existed, with real-time measurement data feeding into it.

This is what the industry refers to as a digital twin. But creating a complete digital twin for every vehicle in a fleet is a major undertaking.

Modern data platforms offer a practical alternative. They can now collect and analyse far more than just location or driving time.

OEM integrations make it possible to retrieve parameters like coolant temperature, idling time, or, in the EV context, battery temperature and charging cycles.

On this basis, companies could also introduce bonus programmes that reward careful vehicle use. Drivers who operate vehicles responsibly, take care of the engine and perform regular maintenance could benefit from cashback or better terms on follow-up contracts.

It’s a clear win-win: drivers are incentivised to drive responsibly, and companies benefit from higher resale values and lower maintenance costs. In the long term, this can reduce overall costs and strengthen brand loyalty.

Beyond the core telematics functions, real-time driving data also supports more accurate residual value forecasting by replacing assumptions with objective insights.

Integrating such platforms should be seen not only as a technical upgrade, but also as a business decision. It helps reduce risk, raise resale values, and improve customer satisfaction.

In an oversupplied used EV market, data-driven valuation can be a real competitive advantage.

Christoph Ludewig is vice president Europe at Geotab

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