Little cheer as new car market looks forward to 2025
Strong growth in EV sales but figures only tell half the story.
Fleet sales sustained the UK’s new car market in 2024, as private buyers stayed out of showrooms.
New figures from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) showed a second year of growth in registrations, up by 2.6% to a total of 1,952,778 new cars, despite a flat December in which the overall market was 0.2% down.
But the positive slant was entirely down to an 11.8% rise in fleet sales to 1,163,855 units, claiming six in ten of new car registrations, while registrations by private buyers slid by 8.7% – the final figure of 746,276 units was less than in 2020 when social distancing restrictions during the pandemic shut down the market for three months.
Sales of battery-electric cars surged by more than 20% over the year, again driven by fleet buyers who enjoy benefit-in-kind tax incentives to switch to electric. In December alone more than 43,500 BEVs were registered, taking the electric share of the market to 19.6%.
However the figures masked the true story – the market share was still shy of the 22% demanded by the first year of the Government’s zero-emissions vehicle (ZEV) mandate, and achieved by massive discounting of EVs by manufacturers desperate to avoid the fines threatened for missing the mandate.
According to the SMMT discounting totalled more than £4.5 billion, while further slewing the market was evidence of manufacturers restricting combustion-engined car sales to boost their electric percentage, and of cars being registered by their makers without being sold to put a positive spin on their figures.
Consumers remain sceptical of switching to electric – while EVs claimed one in five new sales in the market, just one in ten of those were to private buyers. And with the ZEV mandate set to rise to 28% in 2025, requiring a further 50% uplift in electric registrations, industry figures are intensifying their demands for both changes to the mandate and incentives to stimulate private demand.
According to the SMMT action is needed now to amend the regulation to reflect the reality of a constrained market and ZEV demand failing to grow in line with expectations. “When the previous government drew up plans for a mandate the 2024 BEV market was forecast to be almost 20% – or some 75,000 units – larger than has eventuated,” SMMT chief executive Mike Hawes pointed out, adding; “We need rapid results from the regulatory review and urgent substantive support for consumers – else automotive investments will be at risk and the jobs, economic growth and net zero ambitions we all share in jeopardy.”
Philip Nothard, insight director of Cox Automotive, described full-year battery-electric vehicle sales accounting for 20% of new cars on the road as encouraging, adding; “Albeit shy of the 22% goal, this consistent growth is promising for the year ahead – the industry’s primary focus should now be laser-focussed on economic growth, recovery and working closely with the government to make meaningful, achievable steps towards zero-emission vehicle adoption.”
However National Franchised Dealer Association chief executive Sue Robinson described a third consecutive month of decline in the market as concerning, ending the year on a low note, and backed the proposed consultation on the ZEV mandate, saying it would be a valuable opportunity for the sector to help shape the transition.
“As we look ahead to 2025, it is vital for the Government to work closely with the NFDA and the broader industry to ensure the ZEV mandate bolsters rather than disrupts the sector,” Robinson said, adding; “Key developments to watch over the course of the year include the introduction of VED on electric vehicles and the rise in employer national insurance contributions.”
The Ford Puma retained its title as the best-selling car of 2024, despite a late surge by the Kia Sportage. Nissan’s core SUVs, the Qashqai and Juke, took the next two sports with the Tesla Model Y completing the top five and the highest electric vehicle in the table.
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