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New car sales recovery still a very long way off, says leading automotive economist

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Author:

ROBIN ROBERTS

Britain’s recovery in car sales will skid to 2016, says leading international economist Prof Garel Rhys.

That’s two years later than he predicted in 2008 when he said the country was heading into a decline which could last until 2014 unless there was a double dip decline. That has now happened.

“The double dip could easily put us back to 2016 and that is now looking more and more likely,” said Prof Rhys, who is the chairman of the Welsh Automotive Forum.

“A top civil servant has said it could take up to 10 years of austerity in public spending and more people are gradually seeing the truth in that.”

“Our market is totally unrealistic and it cannot go on the way it has. In fact there is more likelihood of a major decline, the like of which we haven’t seen yet in the industry.”

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He added, “As the British economy is not showing any sign of growth and the European economy as a whole is in decline while the rest of the world is slowing as well, there is no reason to suppose 2016 would be unrealistic point before we will see any return to the good days of 2007.”

New car sales in the first half of this year released today show they are currently 15pc below the pre-recession 2007 mark at the same time, but they are still better than the SMMT hoped.

June saw a 3.5pc rise over the same month last year and helped lift sales in H1 by 2.7pc to 1,057,680 with the year-end figure now approximated to 1.95M as registrations are expected to slow through the summer months.

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June registrations were reported at 189,514 cars with alternative fuelled models in particular rising 47.8pc over the same time last year and the small car sector climbing 82.5pc.

Ford Fiesta dominated June and the first six months.

Best sellers in June were:

Fiesta        9063

Corsa        8800

Focus        6937

Golf           6311

3 Series      5830

Astra          5472

Mini           4807

Qashqai   4775

Polo           3378

500            3324

Look at our business car news for the latest sales information and our company car advice on what you should be doing.

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