30% of UK van fleets expect to grow in the next three years, according to the latest Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer.
The figure compares with 55% of fleets predicting stability and 13% expecting a decrease.
This marked a shift in sentiment from 2024, when 40% anticipated growth, 45% stability and 14% a decrease.
John Peters, head of Arval Mobility Observatory in the UK, said: “There’s been a 10 percentage point fall in the number of UK respondents to Arval Mobility Observatory Barometer who expect their van fleet to grow compared to last year.
“However, there’s also been almost no movement in those who say they believe there will be a contraction in fleet numbers – it’s fallen by just 1% to 13%. Instead, there has been a considerable shift to the ‘stable’ column – growing from 45% to 55%.
“To us, this is all reflective of the general economic mood among fleet operators, which we would characterise as slightly more uncertain.
“We are seeing very little actual pessimism among UK businesses, just maybe a little less optimism.”
Peters added that nearly one in three fleets planning to expand remained a positive sign, with van operators acting as a reliable indicator of wider economic sentiment.
The Barometer also showed the UK outlook compared favourably to international results.
In Europe, 25% of fleets expect growth and 9% a decrease, while globally 27% predict growth and 8% a decrease.
The findings are based on interviews with more than 8,000 decision makers across 28 countries, including 300 in the UK.
