While almost two-thirds of new van models are now available as zero-emission, uptake in 2025 was 9.6%, barely half of the 16% required by regulation, according to the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT).
Despite changes to regulatory flexibilities and the return of consumer incentives for the adoption of zero-emission vehicles, the gap between policy ambition and market reality continues to widen.
Electrified heavy goods vehicles are 1.4% of the market in 2025 – reflecting the sector’s diverse operating requirements, high upfront costs and the scale of charging and refuelling infrastructure still needed.
Analysis by the SMMT showed the UK’s transition pathway was built on assumptions that have proved to be over-optimistic.
The SMMT said that conditions have changed so much that failing to reassess the route risks undermining the objectives the policy was designed to achieve.
In 2025, battery electric vehicles accounted for 23.4% of new car registrations – below the 28% ZEV mandate requirement.
It also fell short of the 26% the Government originally expected would be achieved without regulation.
The industry has thus far bridged the gap through higher levels of discounting – more than £10bn over the past two years – and by using mandate flexibilities.
However, the SMMT said such subsidies are unsustainable and undeliverable when, at the end of 2027, targets become tougher (52% for cars, 46% for vans).
Analysis in ‘Same Destination, Smarter Route’, a report published at SMMT’s Electrified conference, showed how battery costs are more than 30% higher than anticipated, raw material costs remain high, and UK and EU industrial energy prices have risen 80% and 28% respectively since 2021.
As a result, the expected price parity between electric and conventionally fuelled vehicles has not materialised, restricting the pace of transition.
Charging infrastructure has increased, but the cost of public charging has, in some instances, gone up by over 140% in the past five years, while a target of at least six ultra-rapid charge points at every UK motorway service area by the end of 2023 was only around 70% complete in early 2025.
Last week, the EU published its draft Industrial Accelerator Act, which threatens trade in the vehicles the EU and UK seek to promote.
Against this backdrop, the SMMT called on the Government to undertake a strategic review of the transition to zero emission vehicles.
Other markets such as the EU and Canada have already altered their transition plans, and the US has rowed back on its EV commitments altogether.
Mike Hawes, chief executive at the SMMT, said: “The UK’s EV transition pathway was conceived with the best of intentions – but the assumptions behind it have proved over-ambitious.
“A landscape which once looked solid has turned out to be quicksand.
“Recognising the world of 2026 is not the one envisaged five years ago is not a retreat from ambition; it is a necessary step to achieving it.
“We need an urgent review that reflects today’s realities, that delivers decarbonisation not deindustrialisation and offers consumers the choice they have always expected.”
At SMMT Electrified, Hawes added that the approach is not working and that the mandate is too far ahead of the consumer.
He also said: “We need a holistic review to ensure we can match demand to supply.”
