ZEV Mandate rethink could put £1.56bn of EV charging investment at risk

Weakening the Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate could delay up to £1.56bn in UK home charge point sales and installations by 2034, according to analysis from trade association BEAMA.

The organisation modelled the impact of reducing the Government’s 2030 target for zero-emission car sales from 80% to 50%, following the launch of a review of the mandate on 14th August.

BEAMA estimated that the weaker trajectory could result in up to 1.7 million fewer home charge point sales by 2034 compared with the existing mandate, representing around £1.56bn in sales and installations.

The association said manufacturers had incorporated the existing ZEV Mandate targets into investment plans for the next decade, with some planned investments approaching £100m. It warned that significant changes to the targets could result in those plans being reviewed.

BEAMA also estimated that lowering the 2030 target to 50% could result in up to 12GW less flexible EV charging capacity by 2034. The Government’s Clean Flexibility Roadmap expects around 4.5GW of flexibility to come from EV smart charging by 2030.

Under the same 50% scenario, BEAMA calculated that the additional petrol, diesel and plug-in hybrid vehicles sold could generate 71MtCO2e over their lifetimes.

Matt Adams, head of electrical transport systems at BEAMA, said: “Government needs to decide whether it is mandating or meandering.

“Manufacturers have invested millions against the trajectory the Government set. If the targets keep changing, the case for investing, expanding and creating well paid, highly skilled jobs that support communities, becomes harder to make.